Spreading the Wealth Across Florida

Robust population growth ushers in new retail developments and redevelopments in all corners of the Sunshine State.

By John Nelson

Even though Florida has long been expanding its economic ecosystem, the state’s current trajectory is a sight to behold. Being in this rarified air all starts with its influx of new Floridians.

Florida was home to four of the country’s top five fastest-growing metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) from 2022 to 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Wildwood-The Villages and Lakeland-Winter Haven, both markets in the central part of the state came in at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. Ocala, another market in Central Florida, and Port St. Lucie in the southeast part of the state rounded out the list at Nos. 4 and 5, respectively.

Additionally, in terms of MSAs that gained the largest net number of new people, Florida had three of the nations top 10 markets, including two in the top five: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 4); Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 5); and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (no. 10). The Census cites new migration, which is the sum of domestic and international migration, as being particularly strong in Florida as some of the MSAs grew in number despite experiencing a natural decrease (i.e. the number of death outgained the number of births).

Research from moving giant U-Haul backs up the Census numbers. According to the U-Haul Growth Index, which tracks each city’s net gain (or loss) of one-way equipment from customer transactions, Florida cities dominated the 2023 rankings with seven of the top 25 markets.

The Palm Bay-Melbourne market on the state’s Space Coast came in at No. 1 while Ocala, which topped the 2022index, came in at No. 2. The U-Haul Growth Index had Sarasota-Bradenton as No. 4.

The state’s robust population growth in recent years has heralded in yearslong, sustained health for Florida’s retail scene. Josh Beyer, senior vice president of St. Petersburg-based Sembler, says that these healthy trends are not just concentrated in one or two metros, it ubiquitous across the state.

“Most markets in Florida, dare I say all markets, are very healthy from a retail perspective,” says Beyer. “Vacancy rates for shopping centers are at historical lows as demand from retailers, personal service providers, restaurants and other users that we typically see in our shopping centers is very strong.”

Sembler has built more than 30 million sq. feet of retail space across 357 projects, many of which are in its home state of Florida.  The company has a pair of shopping center projects in its pipeline in Fort Myers, a city in southwest Florida that is one of many growing markets in the state.

“Fort Myers is certainly in that roup and has been very healthy,” says Beyer. “Single-family communities have also been exploding from the likes of Lennar, and the Fort Myers Airport is expanding its destination offerings and number of flights. It’s a beach community on the Gulf Coast with both a retirement component and younger families.”

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